Towards a doubling of organic turnover by 2027?
NATEXBIO (federation of specialized organic processors and distributors in France) and The Maison de la Bio (an organization bringing together more than 10,000 organic companies and entrepreneurs) launched in 2021, with theCredoc Institute et AND International, a large study in order to provide visibility to companies on the evolution of the organic sector in France by 2027 (food and non-food).
The goal? Helping organic players to plan their investments and support their development. This study, the results of which have just been published, quantifies the impact of external factors (sociological, political, legislative, economic, etc.) on the health of the sector in France. The prospective study conducted by the Credoc Institute and AND International has identified four possible trajectories for the organic sector by 2027, from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic.
S1 – 'Ambition Bio 2027' Scenario +15% / year
This scenario is a variation of the Favorable scenario (S2). It is positioned in an even more ambitious manner, notably driven by a very strong dynamic of conversion and creation of innovative companies in Organic. Market +15% /year
S2 – Favorable Scenario +10% / year
In a context of economic recovery, strong consumer appetite for organic products, ambitious investment policies and favorable regulations, the organic market is growing. Market +10% /year
S3 – Trend Scenario +5% / year
This is a scenario of continuation of trends from several years ago, moderated by the recent trend of a sharp slowdown. Market +5% /year
S4 – Unfavorable Scenario 0 to -5% / year
In a context of declining purchasing power, consumer distrust, and unfavorable regulations, the trend is toward a "traditional" agricultural model that is not very favorable to organic farming. The market is in decline.
The two most ambitious trajectories require strong political and public action, in particular on respecting the commitment of the Minister of Agriculture and Food in 2021, Julien Denormandie, to achieve 18% of agricultural land used for organic farming by 2027.
The implementation of scenario 2, known as "favorable," would have significant repercussions for the country.
With a sector growth of +10% per year, This prospective aims: to create value representing a turnover reaching €23 billion (i.e., multiplied by 2) as well as the massive creation of jobs (+137,000 full-time jobs). This scenario also aims to reach 18% of the useful agricultural area in organic farming in France (compared to 9,5% today). The amount of exports is estimated at €9,265 million over 5 years, with an investment by companies in the sector of €2,750 million over 5 years.
To achieve this “favorable” scenario, several courses of action are possible. First of all, at the public level, we must promote the strengthening of the organic ecosystem, both on demand and on supply, thanks to an educational policy and political relays (at government level and at all levels: local authorities, FR and EU parliaments, etc.). But also with the help of a public plan for innovation towards organic products, and further participation from the government in financing communication campaigns.
The sector also has all its cards to play.
It must be effective to have an impact on prices, by reducing the gap with that of non-organic products (in particular by focusing on the optimization of processes and logistics). It must also meet the new expectations of consumers who are looking for local products, made in France or even fair trade, while remaining within the logic of increasing exports to the EU (cereals, fruits and vegetables, eggs, etc.)
Furthermore, its role must enableimprove scientific knowledge of the benefits of organic products, in particular by developing communication actions:
- towards citizen consumers, in order to explain the benefits of organic products in terms of health, protection of biodiversity, jobs,
- towards farmers, in order to encourage conversions to organic farming
- to opinion leaders and politicians regarding the positive environmental impact of organic farming, its economic impact, with the creation of jobs spread across all territories and its impact on the trade balance
Be an agent of change and meet your future partners at the show!
To discover all the initiatives that support this project and aim to achieve this favorable scenario, come to Natexpo, from September 18 to 20, 2022 at Eurexpo Lyon - France to meet the players in the organic sector and their innovations.
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